Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,101$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(227 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,083.9}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,083.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $80$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(5.25 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98.9}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(98.9\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $499$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $29,981$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(4.88 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,128.3}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 30.3)}}\) (asimptote \(29,128.3\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,784$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(155 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,784.5}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,784.5\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,997$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $211,938$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(2.36 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{208,482.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(208,482.1\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,079$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(2.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,715.5}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 40.7)}}\) (asimptote \(28,715.5\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $99,980$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,180,375$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(7.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,235,984.7}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,235,984.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $68,922$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(3.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{73,384.1}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(73,384.1\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $924,273$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $191,832$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(8.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{203,464.1}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 43.6)}}\) (asimptote \(203,464.1\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,809$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,904.6}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(29,904.6\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $162,113$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $22,721$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,116.4}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 49.3)}}\) (asimptote \(27,116.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,769$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(146 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,059.0}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,059.0\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,878$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $166,152$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(2.13 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{161,659.8}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 33.1)}}\) (asimptote \(161,659.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,993$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(550 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,326.3}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 32.6)}}\) (asimptote \(7,326.3\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $26,459$ on 2020-05-04