Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,101$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(227 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,083.9}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,083.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $80$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(5.25 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98.9}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(98.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $499$ on 2020-05-04

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $29,981$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(4.88 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,128.3}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 30.3)}}\) (asimptote \(29,128.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,784$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(155 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,784.5}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,784.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,997$ on 2020-05-04

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $211,938$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.36 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{208,482.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(208,482.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,079$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,715.5}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 40.7)}}\) (asimptote \(28,715.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $99,980$ on 2020-05-04

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,180,375$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(7.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,235,984.7}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,235,984.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $68,922$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(3.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{73,384.1}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(73,384.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $924,273$ on 2020-05-04

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $191,832$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(8.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{203,464.1}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 43.6)}}\) (asimptote \(203,464.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,809$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,904.6}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(29,904.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $162,113$ on 2020-05-04

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $22,721$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,116.4}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 49.3)}}\) (asimptote \(27,116.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,769$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(146 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,059.0}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,059.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,878$ on 2020-05-04

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $166,152$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.13 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{161,659.8}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 33.1)}}\) (asimptote \(161,659.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,993$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(550 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,326.3}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 32.6)}}\) (asimptote \(7,326.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $26,459$ on 2020-05-04

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Iceland recovered 94%
Thailand recovered 87%
Korea, South recovered 83%
Australia recovered 82%
New Zealand recovered 82%
Austria recovered 82%
Switzerland recovered 79%
Malta recovered 78%
Burkina Faso recovered 75%
Taiwan* recovered 69%
Niger recovered 64%
Germany recovered 64%
Iran recovered 63%
Croatia recovered 60%
Andorra recovered 59%
North Macedonia recovered 55%
Denmark recovered 46%
Uzbekistan recovered 43%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 41%
Costa Rica recovered 40%
Israel recovered 39%
Uruguay recovered 38%
Turkey recovered 31%
Czechia recovered 30%
Spain recovered 30%
Slovakia recovered 27%
Cuba recovered 15%
Japan recovered 12%
Italy recovered 8%
Romania recovered 4%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,966$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(4.75 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(93.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,316.6}{1 + 10^{-0.092 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,316.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,637$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,148.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 25.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,148.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $537$ on 2020-05-04

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,799$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(346 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,802.0}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,802.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.14 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.5}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 23.0)}}\) (asimptote \(10.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $66$ on 2020-05-04

Thailand⮸

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,987$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(806 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,897.3}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 18.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,897.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $54$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(20.5 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53.8}{1 + 10^{-0.078 (t - 10.1)}}\) (asimptote \(53.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $193$ on 2020-05-04

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,804$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(4.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,313.7}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(10,313.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $254$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(51.2 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{258.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 32.5)}}\) (asimptote \(258.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,267$ on 2020-05-04